Official, community-sourced, guide-sourced, estimated, and manually tracked values are labeled separately. Do not treat community values or estimates as official game constants.
What expected loss means
Expected loss is the modeled value at risk after applying base raid risk, offline exposure, and selected defense reductions. It is not a promise that a raid will happen; it is a way to compare risk against cost.
Longer unattended windows increase exposure in the model, which is why the same crop value can deserve different defense choices depending on how long you will be offline.
- Exposed crop value is the value that can realistically be stolen.
- Offline hours increase the exposure multiplier.
- Defense layers reduce modeled risk up to a capped planning limit.
- Expected loss should be compared against repeated-night defense cost.
Defense cost versus repeated nights
A defense layer can look expensive for one night and reasonable across repeated high-value harvests. Use the calculator when a crop row will stay valuable across more than one night cycle.
Cheaper layers can be useful around corners or fence gaps, while higher-cost gates and sentry-style upgrades make more sense near premium crop rows or guild plots.
Reading the raider view
The raider view exists to show break-even pressure. If a selected tool setup costs more than the likely haul, the raid route is less rational in the model.
This helps defenders decide whether visible defenses are enough to discourage a raid or whether the exposed value is still too attractive.
Risk reductions and raider success lifts are transparent estimates until direct gameplay telemetry is connected.
When to route into other tools
Use the crop value calculator before defense planning when you do not know the exposed crop value. Use the live tracker when weather windows or seed resets change whether the crop should be sold now.
If a high-value weather window is active, defense planning should come before waiting through a public-server night cycle.
FAQ
Common Questions
What is the main purpose of the GAG2 defense raid planner?
It helps compare expected crop loss against defense cost when valuable crops may sit exposed through offline hours or a public-server night cycle.
What should I enter as exposed crop value?
Enter the value of crops that can realistically be stolen, not your full account value. Use the crop value calculator first if you need an estimate.
Why does offline time increase expected loss?
Longer unattended windows create more opportunities for a raid in the planning model, so the exposure multiplier rises with offline hours.
Does a defense layer guarantee safety?
No. Defense layers reduce modeled risk but do not guarantee safety. The planner is for comparing cost and risk, not certifying a plot as safe.
Why include raider tool cost on a defense page?
Raider tool cost shows break-even pressure. If a raid needs a large haul to justify its tools, a defender can judge whether visible crop value is still attractive.